Great exaggeration has been made of the headline news from the just-ended Communist Party Central Committee Plenum about China ending its One Child policy. In the first place the policy is merely being “adjusted,” not abolished. While many in China are aware that for the future a scarcity of young people will be a major constraint on development, others still feel that China is too over-crowded and that longer lifespans demand continuation of strict limits on fertility.
As in the past this is likely to mean that One Child implementation will in practice be very varied, with some authorities sticking to rigid definitions of the exceptions to be allowed, such as families where one of the parents is an only child, while in others – especially the major cities – application, at least to hukou-holding residents, is slack.
But all of this misses the much bigger point that, contrary to received media wisdom the impact of the One Child policy has been greatly exaggerated if one looks at China as a whole. Hence any changes in that policy, including complete abolition, will have very limited and probably only short term impact.
The One Child order has of course always been an example of the inhuman as well as authoritarian nature of the one-party state and on occasions has been accompanied by vicious practices such as enforced late-term abortions as well as administrative sanctions against parents having a second child. Given that countries such as Thailand, Taiwan and South Korea all achieved dramatic reductions in fertility rates without recourse to such measures alone is enough to demonstrate the arrogance of the party which even now claims One Child policy to have been a great success. Full story...
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As in the past this is likely to mean that One Child implementation will in practice be very varied, with some authorities sticking to rigid definitions of the exceptions to be allowed, such as families where one of the parents is an only child, while in others – especially the major cities – application, at least to hukou-holding residents, is slack.
But all of this misses the much bigger point that, contrary to received media wisdom the impact of the One Child policy has been greatly exaggerated if one looks at China as a whole. Hence any changes in that policy, including complete abolition, will have very limited and probably only short term impact.
The One Child order has of course always been an example of the inhuman as well as authoritarian nature of the one-party state and on occasions has been accompanied by vicious practices such as enforced late-term abortions as well as administrative sanctions against parents having a second child. Given that countries such as Thailand, Taiwan and South Korea all achieved dramatic reductions in fertility rates without recourse to such measures alone is enough to demonstrate the arrogance of the party which even now claims One Child policy to have been a great success. Full story...
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